Final Regular Season Win Expectancy

Back on July 12th, ATVL posted on win expectancy based on run differential. For an obviously more complete explanation, click the link and take a look back.

For today, here is the grid of how teams might have been expected to perform given their runs scored and runs allowed:

Actual Expected Expected
Team W L % RS RA % Wins Difference
Charlottesville 24 18 0.571 257 168 0.701 29.4 -5.4
Covington 26 16 0.619 234 230 0.509 21.4 4.6
Front Royal 24 18 0.571 251 199 0.614 25.8 -1.8
Harrisonburg 20 22 0.476 222 222 0.500 21.0 -1.0
New Market 24 18 0.571 283 254 0.554 23.3 0.7
Purcellville 25 17 0.595 234 205 0.566 23.8 1.2
Staunton 20 22 0.476 273 274 0.498 20.9 -0.9
Strasburg 17 25 0.405 250 312 0.391 16.4 0.6
Waynesboro 24 18 0.571 247 210 0.580 24.4 -0.4
Winchester 22 20 0.524 225 218 0.516 21.7 0.3
Woodstock 5 37 0.119 171 356 0.187 7.9 -2.9

According to this metric, the Charlottesville Tom Sox “should have” ended the regular season 29-13, and Covington “should have” finished 21-21! And Woodstock should have been 8-34.

It doesn’t mean too much, but it’s a fun exercise all the same!

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s