Back on July 12th, ATVL posted on win expectancy based on run differential. For an obviously more complete explanation, click the link and take a look back.
For today, here is the grid of how teams might have been expected to perform given their runs scored and runs allowed:
| Actual | Expected | Expected | ||||||
| Team | W | L | % | RS | RA | % | Wins | Difference |
| Charlottesville | 24 | 18 | 0.571 | 257 | 168 | 0.701 | 29.4 | -5.4 |
| Covington | 26 | 16 | 0.619 | 234 | 230 | 0.509 | 21.4 | 4.6 |
| Front Royal | 24 | 18 | 0.571 | 251 | 199 | 0.614 | 25.8 | -1.8 |
| Harrisonburg | 20 | 22 | 0.476 | 222 | 222 | 0.500 | 21.0 | -1.0 |
| New Market | 24 | 18 | 0.571 | 283 | 254 | 0.554 | 23.3 | 0.7 |
| Purcellville | 25 | 17 | 0.595 | 234 | 205 | 0.566 | 23.8 | 1.2 |
| Staunton | 20 | 22 | 0.476 | 273 | 274 | 0.498 | 20.9 | -0.9 |
| Strasburg | 17 | 25 | 0.405 | 250 | 312 | 0.391 | 16.4 | 0.6 |
| Waynesboro | 24 | 18 | 0.571 | 247 | 210 | 0.580 | 24.4 | -0.4 |
| Winchester | 22 | 20 | 0.524 | 225 | 218 | 0.516 | 21.7 | 0.3 |
| Woodstock | 5 | 37 | 0.119 | 171 | 356 | 0.187 | 7.9 | -2.9 |
According to this metric, the Charlottesville Tom Sox “should have” ended the regular season 29-13, and Covington “should have” finished 21-21! And Woodstock should have been 8-34.
It doesn’t mean too much, but it’s a fun exercise all the same!
